Anyone who has ever dealt with the topic of sports betting cannot escape this question: How are betting odds established? The product of the odds and the stake determines the payout amount in the case of a successful bet. However, to profit from sports betting in the long run, it is essential to understand how betting odds are formed and what value can be derived from them. These tips you can also use for your next round at HellSpin.
But is there really just one betting odd? The answer is a clear no. On one hand, each bookmaker has different odds for the same event (although they usually differ only slightly), and on the other hand, these odds change over time. Furthermore, a distinction is made between opening odds (Opening Odds) and closing odds (Closing Odds / Closing Line).
This guide article on Wettbasis explains why different bookmakers offer different betting odds. It also shows why and how these odds change from the opening to the start of the respective event. Additionally, the focus will be on how the opening odds are calculated or determined by the bookmaker. How are betting odds formed? Here is the answer!
The Path to Opening Odds
Bookmakers employ many experts. Professional odds makers are hired for various areas and sports. An odds maker is not the same as a bookmaker. An odds maker works for the bookmaker and sets the respective betting odds for their assigned area. Large bookmakers, which allow significant stakes, consequently hire only the best experts in their field. It is not uncommon for professional bettors to be recruited by bookmakers.
When a bookmaker understands their customers very well and continually loses against individual players, a collaboration may be offered. On one hand, the betting professional can now rely on a stable income and continue to pursue their hobby. On the other hand, the bookmaker benefits from their expertise to set the betting odds more accurately. Not every betting provider has such a department; often, the odds are purchased.
But why is it so important for betting odds to be as accurately adjusted as possible to expected market developments? A bookmaker relies on assessing the probabilities of the individual games better than their customers. If a bookmaker’s assessments are frequently incorrect, professional bettors would consistently win, and the bookmaker would inevitably go bankrupt over time. Therefore, their goal is to calculate the probabilities and the derived betting odds as accurately as possible. When a bookmaker also incorporates a margin, this business model can be quite lucrative. If a bookmaker could always calculate the exact probability and retain a portion of the stakes (bookmaker margin), they would be unbeatable with the right distribution of bets.
Betting Odds Include a Bookmaker Margin
The latter is indeed the case. A certain portion of the stakes is retained. For example, with a 50% probability, the bookmaker does not offer odds of 2.0 but rather around 1.90. Thus, a profit for the bookmaker is likely in this situation. The only way for the sports bettor to make money is to calculate a more accurate probability in order to overcome this built-in house advantage. This can be achieved in various ways. However, to implement these tactics, one must first understand how the odds maker calculates the betting odds.